REPORT OF CICM EAST OF ENGLAND BRANCH LUNCH AND LEARN

On 16th June Andy Moylan, CEO of EFCIS, and CICM East of England Branch committee member, followed up his amazing Part One webinar on Donald Trump's trade tariffs on 19th May with Part 2: What is Really behind the USA Tariffs- Is It Smoke and Mirrors?

Just as in his first webinar, once again Andy held delegates engrossed as he painted a vivid picture, packed with facts and figures after comprehensive research, about today’s evolving political and economic landscape

His belief was that Trump's ever shifting position on tariffs and deadlines was not really about trading relations but was actually more about being deliberately disruptive because of China’s dominance in world trade (36.63% compared to US 15.87%) The impacts of the changing tariffs - higher operational costs, uncertainty and the difficulty for buyers and of pricing were considered, and the sectors most effected were detailed.

Looking at the next two to five years, he outlined the shifting balance between Geopolitics and Geo-economics, looked at the UK economy and its very small manufacturing sector, relying, as the UK, largely on Services that would be adversely affected by A1. Andy stressed that Europe had never before been in such a weak position.

He explained why tariffs would not be in the best interests of US consumers. China and USA were in discussions about a trading arrangement as they had to because they were mutually dependent. The Middle East, with 12% of trade, could be destabilised - particular by war in Iran. 80% of GDP growth in future could well come from emerging markets as the world order changed.

For Credit Managers understanding these dynamics was essential to navigating the way forward and safeguarding financial security because political risk would have to dovetailed into future risk decisions.

Andy invited, and answered, many questions and thoughts throughout.

Richard Brown FCICM

CICM East of England Vice Chairman, Secretary and Treasurer